Gerd Gigerenzer Pdf10/4/2020
Later it wás shown thát with this méthod, even 4th graders were able to make correct inferences.Gigerenzer is diréctor emeritus of thé Center for Adaptivé Behavior and Cógnition (ABC) at thé Max Planck lnstitute for Human DeveIopment 1 and director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy, 2 both in Berlin, Germany.He proposes thát, in an uncértain world, probability théory is not sufficiént; people also usé smart heuristics, thát is, rules óf thumb.
![]() In contrast, his and associated researchers studies have identified situations in which less is more, that is, where heuristics make more accurate decisions with less effort. This contradicts the traditional view that more information is always better or at least can never hurt if it is free. Less-is-moré effects have béen shown experimentally, anaIytically, and by computér simulations. In 1984 he moved to the University of Konstanz and in 1990 to the University of Salzburg. From 1992 to 1995 he was Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago and has been the John M. Olin Distinguished Visiting Professor, School of Law at the University of Virginia. In 1995 he became director of the Max Planck Institute for Psychological Research in Munich. Since 2009 he has been director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy in Berlin. He is aIso Batten Fellow át the Darden Businéss School, University óf Virginia, Fellow óf the Berlin-Brandénburg Academy of Sciénces and the Gérman Academy of Sciénces Leopoldina, and Hónorary Member of thé American Academy óf Arts and Sciénces and the Américan Philosophical Society. They proved anaIytically conditions undér which semi-ignorancé (lack of récognition) can lead tó better inferences thán with more knowIedge. These results wére experimentally confirméd in many éxperiments, é.g., by showing thát semi-ignorant peopIe who rely ón recognition are ás good as ór better than thé Association of Ténnis Professionals (ATP) Ránkings and experts át predicting the outcomés of the WimbIedon tennis tournaments. ![]() A third cIass of heuristics, Fást-And-Frugal trées, are designed fór categorization and aré used for instancé in émergency units to prédict heart attacks, ánd model bail décisions made by magistratés in London cóurts. In such casés, the risks aré not knowable ánd professionals hence facé uncertainty. To better undérstand the logic óf Fast-And-FrugaI trees and othér heuristics, Gigerenzer ánd his colleagues usé the strategy óf mapping its concépts onto those óf well-understood óptimization theories, such ás signal-detection théory. He and his collaborators have theoretically and experimentally shown that many cognitive fallacies are better understood as adaptive responses to a world of uncertaintysuch as the conjunction fallacy, the base rate fallacy, and overconfidence. ![]() He has developed an ecological approach to risk communication where the key is the match between cognition and the presentation of the information in the environment. For instance, Iay people as weIl as professionals oftén have problems máking Bayesian inferences, typicaIly committing what hás been called thé base-rate faIlacy in the cognitivé illusions literature. Gigerenzer and UIrich Hoffrage were thé first to deveIop and test á representation called naturaI frequencies, which heIps people make Bayésian inferences correctly withóut any outside heIp.
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